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AP Photo/Steven Senne

An early voting polling place in Wellesley, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

Election season’s final lap

The Senate in the balance, Biden in the dock, and Barrett in the court

After months of one of the most unusual presidential campaigns in modern history, we’re less than one week away from Election Day. Here’s a grab-bag of stories to watch as the week unfolds.

Senate showdown

While the top of the ticket is grabbing the most attention, GOP senators remain locked in a grueling battle to hang on to their majority—and to prevent a Democratic sweep of the White House and both chambers of Congress. 

Some Republican senators seemed to brace for a potential wipeout: Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., will likely keep his Senate seat, but he’s clearly worried about down-ballot disasters in swing states. Sasse slammed President Donald Trump’s leadership during a recent campaign call with constituents, and he warned of a “Republican bloodbath” in the Senate if Trump loses. 

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, blamed Democrats for holding up a new coronavirus stimulus package, but he worried about a similar scenario: He told CNBC that if voters are angry and depressed on Election Day, the GOP could face “a bloodbath of Watergate proportions.”

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., avoided talk of bloodbaths in his swing state re-election bid, and he told reporters he thought Trump could win. But he also added a pragmatic note: “The best check on a Biden presidency is for Republicans to have a majority in the Senate.”

Biden in the dock

When it comes to a Biden presidency, Democratic nominee Joe Biden hasn’t answered questions about whether he would add more justices to the Supreme Court. The question gained urgency as Democrats objected to Republican plans to confirm a new justice before Election Day.

Republicans moved ahead: The Senate voted to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court on Monday evening, and she was officially sworn in on Tuesday. 

The ball is now in Biden’s court: With less than a week left before Election Day, will he say whether he intends to support packing the Supreme Court? In a town hall on Oct. 15, Biden said he’s “not a fan” of the idea, but he didn’t rule it out. A few days ago, he said he would convene a committee of scholars to study the courts if he’s elected, but he still didn’t answer queries about adding additional justices.

Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., dodged a similar question in a debate with Vice President Mike Pence, but during her primary run for the presidency she told The New York Times she was “absolutely open” to the discussion of expanding the court. 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., made her own demands clear in a Monday night tweet to her own party: “Expand the court.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., didn’t dismiss the idea in an appearance on MSNBC: “Should we expand the court? Well, let’s take a look and see.”

Meanwhile, another question remains unanswered: Biden has avoided queries about whether he intends to support eliminating the Senate filibuster and pave the way for most legislation to pass with a simple majority in the Senate. 

Biden also continues to face allegations regarding his involvement in the overseas business dealings of his son, Hunter Biden. The former vice president denies ever discussing overseas business with his son. Tony Bobulinksi, a former business associate of Hunter Biden, alleges that’s not true, and he says he met with both Bidens in May 2017.

Barrett in the court

Barrett’s new appointment means the conservative balance of the high court shifts to 6-3. But it also may mean more influence for one justice in particular: Clarence Thomas.

That’s because Chief Justice John Roberts sometimes votes with the more liberal side of the court in decisions that have come down 5-4. In those cases, Roberts has the authority to choose which justice writes the majority opinion, and he can assign the duty to himself.

But the new balance brings a new twist: If Roberts joins the liberal side of the court in some cases—and if Barrett joins the conservatives—the conservative side likely would prevail 5-4. With Roberts in the dissent, the authority to assign authorship of the majority opinion would fall to the most senior justice in the conservative majority. 

That would be Clarence Thomas.

Wall Street Journal opinion editor James Taranto considers the implications: “Justice Thomas is something of an anti-Roberts. His lone concurrences and dissents are usually not incremental but adventurous, urging colleagues to break new legal ground or rethink old precedents.” 

Taranto notes that in a dissent this summer, Thomas argued that “Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided and should be overturned—a position no other sitting justice has endorsed since Antonin Scalia died in 2016.” 

With a new court balance, Taranto says Thomas may be in a position to write majority opinions and to “induce the court to a bolder conclusion.” 

For now, Barrett joins the court just in time to face a request that she recuse herself from an election-related case. There wasn’t an immediate word on Barrett’s response, but she did make one election-related comment during a White House ceremony on Monday night: 

“My fellow Americans, even though we judges don’t face elections, we still work for you. It is your Constitution that establishes the rule of law and the judicial independence that is so central to it.

“The oath that I have solemnly taken tonight means, at its core, that I will do my job without any fear or favor, and that I will do so independently of both the political branches and of my own preferences.”

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kupicoo/iStock

(kupicoo/iStock)

The fatherhood factor

The worst systemic injustice in America is one the left ignores

As a doctor, Theodore Dalrymple worked for 15 years among the poor in a hospital and prison in a major city. Writing about the experience, Dalrymple noted the routine violence in the lives of his patients, “the fluidity of relations between the sexes,” and “the devastating effect of prevalent criminality” in the community. 

Fatherlessness among children born in the urban hospital was almost universal, and in most homes any adult male was “generally a bird of passage” instead of a long-term resident. The people had a poor work ethic and a sense of entitlement to welfare. They also shared a belief that the consequences of their destructive choices were someone else’s fault. Dalrymple argues these traits contribute to “the worldview that makes the underclass.”

The underclass Dalrymple describes may sound familiar to American ears—but Dalrymple is English, the hospital and prison in which he worked were in Birmingham, England, and the underclass he served was almost entirely white.

That’s important, because Americans tend to think of the poverty and the social pathologies of urban areas in terms of race. But the reality of a white underclass in England—with behavior mirroring that of the black underclass in America—suggests that something other than race or racism is the problem.

If you ask someone on the left about urban poverty, he will likely blame systemic racism. And it’s certainly true that vicious racism has been common in American history. However, Census Bureau data on other nonwhite races (and, increasingly, black immigrants from Africa) don’t paint a picture of a systemically racist America in the 21st century, at least with regard to the economy.

Nonwhite persons from all over the world come to the United States and excel, in some cases spectacularly so. If the American economy were systemically racist, Indian Americans, Chinese Americans, Japanese Americans, and others wouldn’t have higher per-capita incomes than white Americans have. Their success is strong evidence that the American free-market system, in 2020, is wide open.

What do these immigrant groups have that the urban poor do not have? Engaged fathers in intact families that stress education, no sense of entitlement from the state, and a belief that achievement is possible. They didn’t grow up in the culture created by the sexual revolution and the welfare state, a culture that considers fathers unimportant in the lives of children and that treats lifelong welfare dependency as normal.

Larry Elder, in a video for Prager University, outlines how fatherlessness in particular is a crisis in America. He points to statistics showing that fatherless children are five times more likely to live in poverty, nine times more likely to drop out of school, and 20 times more likely to go to prison. These statistics constitute a crisis because so many children are born to unwed mothers now: In 2015, it was 41 percent of American children overall (compared with 5 percent in 1960, before the sexual revolution and Lyndon B. Johnson’s War on Poverty) and 73 percent of black children.

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Screengrab via CCTV

Lee Meng-chu (Screengrab via CCTV)

Tension in the Taiwan Strait

As Taiwan welcomes U.S. officials and Hong Kong activists, China takes an aggressive posture

Lee Meng-chu, a Taiwanese man who has been in Chinese custody for more than a year, appeared on Chinese state television earlier this month to offer a “confession”: He stated he had illegally filmed military exercises in Shenzhen. Chinese officials accuse Lee, an electronics trader, of endangering China’s national security. 

With close-cropped hair and a red vest with his prison number, Lee said he used his phone to record videos and take photos of Chinese military police as they practiced maneuvers with armored vehicles at a stadium in Shenzhen, the city just across the border from Hong Kong. At the time, many speculated these military police were preparing to invade Hong Kong, where pro-democracy protests had roiled the streets for months.

“I am sorry,” Lee said in the video. “I did many bad, wrong things in the past, perhaps harming the motherland and the country.” Chinese authorities are known to force prisoners to give pre-trial confessions—often under threats and torture—which are then broadcast on state-controlled media. 

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council called the television program on Lee and other alleged Taiwan spies “complete nonsense.”

The televised confession comes as the relationship between China and Taiwan grows increasingly tense. The democratic island has stoked Beijing’s ire by drawing closer to the United States, most recently by welcoming visits from two high-level U.S. officials: Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar and Under Secretary of State Keith Krach. Reuters reported the United States also plans to sell as many as seven major weapons systems to Taiwan, including mines, cruise missiles, and drones. 

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