America’s shrinking future

The United States birth rate dropped again last year, hitting a 30-year low and raising concerns about the future of American society and economic growth.

The number of U.S. babies born last year fell 2 percent from 2016, from 3.95 million to 3.85 million, according to data released last week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics.

The fertility rate—the number of births per 1,000 women of reproductive age—also hit a record low, down 3 percent since 2016 to 60.2 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44. The total fertility rate—the theoretical total number of births each woman would have in a lifetime if she followed the current fertility rate—also dropped 3 percent, to 1.765 births per woman.

The United States has been below replacement fertility (2,100 births per 1,000 women) for the greater part of the last 45 years. Robust immigration has staved off some of the negative effects of population decline, but not all.

An aging population with fewer young people will over time decline and contract, according to Steven Mosher, president of the Population Research Institute. It has happened already in Japan, Hungary, and Italy, where immigration has not made up for falling birth rates, Mosher said. (Often-quoted, but insightful: The Japanese purchase more adult diapers than child diapers.)

Another major concern: How will fewer working-age adults support systems like Social Security and Medicaid with the Baby Boomers in retirement?

“The number of births in the U.S. today is simply not enough by itself to keep the population stable,” Mosher said.

Noting the fertility declines over the past three years were mostly among women under 30, Kasey Buckles, an economics professor at Notre Dame, said the data indicated the decrease most likely came from a drop in unwanted pregnancies and people just being more “intentional about their fertility.”

But other data suggest women are having fewer children than they want, partly because couples are waiting longer to get married.

“Marriage rates are falling, as well, and fertility rates among unmarried women are much lower than for married women, not to mention that outcomes for both children and their parents are best when the parents are married,” Mosher said.

What’s the fix? “American society, like much of the West, places much emphasis on success, achievement, and career goals,” Mosher said. “We have to, as a society, underline the importance of marriage and motherhood.”

His practical suggestion: Protect young couples with children from onerous tax rates by not making them pay income or Social Security taxes. “They are contributing to the future of the U.S. in the most fundamental way: by providing the future generation.”