Kent Covington
Associated Press/Photo by Jacob Hamilton/The Saginaw News

Pollsters are last night’s biggest losers

Campaign 2016 | Pre-election predictions mostly came true, except where it mattered
by Kent Covington
Posted 11/09/16, 11:00 am

Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential race came as a shock to prognosticators and pollsters. The polling analysis blog FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning in its final pre-election forecast, and the New York Times’ The Upshot put her odds of victory at 85 percent.

Some journalists this morning blamed their blown calls on bad polling. 

“We don’t know what happened, because the tools that we would normally use to help us assess what happened failed,” the Times’ Maggie Haberman said. “The polling on both sides was wrong.”

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Associated Press/Photo by Evan Vucci

Countdown to the first presidential debate

Campaign 2016 | Trump has the most to gain from a successful showing
by Kent Covington & Nick Eicher
Posted 9/21/16, 12:27 pm

Just five days from the first debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, polls show the race can’t get much tighter. Clinton leads in an average of national polls by a single point, and polls of major battleground states have also tightened. 

Since the very first televised debate in 1960, between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy, the debates have often marked turning points in presidential elections. Kennedy surged 5 points in the polls from the first debate to the last and won a narrow victory. 

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Associated Press/Photo by Jim Cole

Libertarian candidate seeks media favor

Campaign 2016 | Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson wins first major endorsement
Posted 9/07/16, 11:02 am

Over the weekend, Hillary Clinton’s opponent picked up a noteworthy endorsement in the key state of Virginia. The Richmond Times-Dispatch endorsed not Donald Trump, but Libertarian candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson.

“Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton meets the fundamental moral and professional ethics we have every right to expect of an American president,” the paper’s editorial stated. The editorial board also insisted Johnson be allowed on the stage in the first general election cycle presidential debate on Sept. 26.  

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