Campaign 2016 | Pre-election predictions mostly came true, except where it mattered
by Kent Covington
Posted 11/09/16, 11:00 am
Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential race came as a shock to prognosticators and pollsters. The polling analysis blog FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning in its final pre-election forecast, and the New York Times’ The Upshot put her odds of victory at 85 percent.
Some journalists this morning blamed their blown calls on bad polling.
“We don’t know what happened, because the tools that we would normally use to help us assess what happened failed,” the Times’ Maggie Haberman said. “The polling on both sides was wrong.”