Most independent analysts now believe Democrats are extremely likely to retake the U.S. House of Representatives this fall. As we assess their chances and the number of seats they might pick up, it’s helpful to recall that not all districts are created equal. Marginal House seats divide roughly into four groups, only three of which are fertile ground for Democratic wins. That will likely limit their gains in the House and make any Democratic majority small and tenuous, unless the political ground shifts further in their direction.

The battleground for Senate control looks well defined. Republicans have six clear targets, and the Democrats have three. But some other developing races could become unexpectedly difficult for the incumbent. These “sleeper” Senate races are worth watching as election activity heats up in the fall.

Henry Olsen now writes about politics for WORLD Magazine, but his latest book made our 2017 Book of the Year short list in the Understanding America category before he became our correspondent.

The fall midterms will be fought in thousands of towns and cities nationwide. But if you want to get a quick idea about the outcome, go to Miami, Minneapolis, and Philadelphia. Together these areas include 13 in-play House seats and contain concentrations of the types of voters up for grabs in other places.

The battle for the House has dominated discussions about the fall midterm elections. But, as the debate over the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court shows, control of the Senate could matter more to the country’s direction. The polls paint a very mixed picture as to which party will enjoy Senate control next year.

Primary election season is now upon us. State after state will hold its party nomination contests over the next five months starting in May. While most nominees will be fair representatives of the respective parties, occasionally parties nominate candidates whose personal problems or extreme political stances cause them to lose eminently winnable races. California’s unique rules also pose a problem for Democrats trying to unseat some of the state’s seven GOP members of Congress holding seats carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Avoiding those self-inflicted wounds will be job No.

We have another blue tsunami warning. Rebecca Dallet’s 12-point margin over Michael Screnock in Wisconsin’s recent Supreme Court race has reignited talk that November will see a Democratic landslide. The evidence from that race, while good news for Democrats, is more nuanced.