In February, Trump praised Xi’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, saying he was “doing a very good job with a very tough situation” and thanking him for containing the virus. Only after the pandemic spread to the United States did Trump accuse China of covering up the virus and take strong steps against China.

Still, U.S. confrontations under Trump have provoked tit-for-tat responses: China has taken trade measures to hurt U.S. farmers, kicked reporters out of China, and closed the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu. Meanwhile, Communist officials still hold Uighurs in camps and are stripping Hong Kong of its freedoms.

Balding noted the United States does not have the power to change China, and he cautioned against judging Trump policies only by that measure.

“I think fundamentally the United States for the first time said, ‘We are going to impose costs and punishment for Chinese behavior that does not meet the standard of open international actors in today’s world,’” he said.

IF BIDEN WINS THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION in November, the United States’ policy toward China would see a large shift. Biden would focus more on diplomacy and cooperation in areas of mutual interest. As recently as May 2019, Biden said China was “not competition for us,” since it had domestic problems to deal with.

Biden’s remarks about China became more pointed this year: During February’s Democratic presidential campaign debates, Biden called Xi a “thug” for having “a million Uighurs in … concentration camps.” He later called Beijing’s imposition of a repressive national security law on Hong Kong a “death blow to the freedoms and autonomy that set Hong Kong apart from the rest of China.” He said that, as president, he would ban U.S. companies from supporting the Chinese Communist Party’s surveillance state and impose economic sanctions if Beijing “tries to silence U.S. citizens, companies, and institutions for exercising their First Amendment rights.” He also promised to “take stronger steps to prevent imports from forced labor” in Xinjiang.

Writing in Foreign Affairs, Biden said that if elected, he would work to build up America’s standing in the world through investment in education, infrastructure, technology, and healthcare. He noted the most effective way to challenge China is to “build a united front of U.S. allies and partners to confront China’s abuse behaviors and human rights violations.” At the same time, he plans to cooperate with Beijing on issues such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, and the pandemic response.

“China can’t afford to ignore more than half the global economy,” Biden wrote.

Biden has also stressed the need for the United States to lead international organizations like the United Nations and the World Health Organization. Trump decided to withdraw from the health organization due to Chinese influence, especially after the WHO parroted China’s talking points during the early outbreak of the coronavirus. Biden tweeted he would rejoin the organization on his first day as president and “restore our leadership on the world stage.”

June Teufel Dreyer, a political science professor at the University of Miami, doesn’t find the Democratic candidate’s approach especially compelling. “What [Biden’s] proposing to do has already been done and it hasn’t gone anywhere,” she said.

President Trump has at times alienated traditional U.S. allies such as Canada, Germany, France, and other European countries over issues such as the Iran deal, NATO, and America-first policy. The United States plans to pull 12,000 troops out of Germany over claims the country is not spending enough on defense. Democrats criticize Trump for acting “unilaterally” rather than working with allies.

Yet since the coronavirus pandemic began, new international coalitions have formed, including the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which includes politicians from the United States, Australia, Canada, Britain, Japan, Germany, and elsewhere. The long-standing Five Eyes intelligence alliance (the United States, Britain, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) has also pushed China on its repressive treatment of Hong Kong and urged an international investigation into the origin of the coronavirus. The recent border conflict between China and India, too, has strengthened an international partnership India shares with Japan, Australia, and the United States.

BALDING, THE FULBRIGHT PROFESSOR, pointed to several problems with Biden’s plan to rely on allies to pressure China.

For one thing, there are no allies waiting for the United States to reach out to them. “Many countries have interests that cause them not to directly confront China,” he said. Some would avoid publicly admitting to being part of a U.S. alliance in order not to upset China, but would quietly shift their policy to align with the United States. For instance, countries like France or Romania do not have a formal ban on Huawei, but their telecommunication regulations effectively block the company.

Another concern is that even if Biden were able to gather allies, it is uncertain what new, tangible policies these countries could implement against China. Each country faces its own domestic issues and has its own foreign relations ideology, Balding noted. Germany, for example, the largest economy in Europe, has avoided criticizing China: Its leaders say it is not their place to lecture other countries on how to act. Rather German Chancellor Angela Merkel believes closer trade ties with China would push the Communist country toward a freer political system.

German companies have large investments in China: Volkswagen invested $2.4 billion in two Chinese electric vehicle companies. The carmaker also opened a factory in Xinjiang, the area of the Uighur reeducation camps. When asked, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess claimed he was unaware of repression in the region. German manufacturing company Siemens and chemical producer BASF also have factories in Xinjiang.

The European Union has done little more than publish strongly worded statements against China’s human rights abuses. With China as its second-largest trading partner, the EU has not enacted sanctions against the country. In a March 2019 EU Commission document, it called China both a “cooperation partner” and a “systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance.”

Balding’s conclusion: “It’s dubious what you could expect from allies.”