Raising the bar

Web Extra | Obama, Huckabee rise to the top in Iowa caucuses
by Jamie Dean
Posted 1/04/08, 12:00 am

Candidate Profiles: Mike Huckabee | Barack Obama

While Iowa caucus-goers packed into gyms and churches last night to choose presidential nominees, a handful of Sen. Hillary Clinton's supporters perched on bar stools in the Thank Ya Now Saloon in Pageland, S.C., to watch the results.

The tiny bar in a rural farming town seemed an unlikely place to find Clinton supporters watching caucus returns, but the meager crowd sported campaign buttons and sipped beer in the smoky saloon boasting huge NASCAR banners and three pool tables.

In a dark corner, Congressman Marion Berry (D-AR) and Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel -- both Clinton supporters -- munched on pork rinds and pretzels at the last stop of a long day of campaigning for Clinton in South Carolina.

Nearby, a lone Hillary Clinton sign hung on the back wall next to a confederate flag emblazoned with the slogan: "The South Will Rise Again." The mood in the bar was subdued as patrons and campaign staffers soon realized a political reality: On this night, Clinton wouldn't rise in Iowa.

It didn't take long for caucus results to roll in. By 7:45 p.m. in Iowa, officials were calling the Republican race for former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. The win represented a huge boost for Huckabee after months of idling in second-tier status.

That boost could infuse increased momentum into the candidate's low-budget campaign facing a slew of primaries over the next two months. "What's happening tonight in Iowa is really going to start a prairie fire of new hope and zeal," Huckabee told elated supporters.

For Republican Mitt Romney, that's a fire he had hoped to contain. Romney's second place finish (nine points behind Huckabee) was a bust for the candidate putting so many of his eggs in the Iowa basket.

Romney campaigned relentlessly in Iowa, and spent some $7 million on ads in the state. Huckabee spent less time in Iowa, and far less money: The campaign doled out about $1.4 million for ads.

Exit polls showed that Huckabee connected with Iowa's evangelical voters: Self-identified evangelicals made up nearly 60 percent of Republican caucus-goers. About half of those voters chose Huckabee, according to an AP survey. Romney led among non-evangelicals by about 2-to-1.

Republicans Fred Thompson and Sen. John McCain tied for third place in Iowa. Both candidates had hoped for a better showing, but Thompson told supporters he could move forward with a third-place finish: "It looks like we've got a ticket to the next dance."

McCain used the caucus results to cast doubt on Romney's strength in New Hampshire, where the pair are locked in a dead heat for first place in next week's Jan. 8 primary. "Change is coming," McCain told supporters.

Huckabee faces an uphill battle in New Hampshire: The state has far fewer evangelical voters, and Huckabee has spent less time and money on the New Hampshire contest. He trails in fourth place in the latest polls. The candidate will spend the next few days blitzing New Hampshire, and trying to convince Republican voters that he is fiscally conservative.

About a half hour after Iowa pundits called the Republican race for Huckabee, Congressman Berry looked up from his mixed drink at the saloon in South Carolina to take in the Democratic results: After running a three-way tie for much of the evening, the tide turned: Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) had won the Iowa contest with 38 percent of the vote.

Former senator John Edwards finished in second place with 30 percent. Clinton finished in a close third place with 29 percent.

The second place finish was a disappointment for Edwards: His campaign had poured extensive resources and energy into Iowa, hoping to clinch an early win and regain lost momentum. But if second place was tough for Edwards, third place was searing for Clinton.

Political observers drawing worst-case scenarios ahead of the Iowa contest on Thursday predicted that a Clinton loss to Edwards wouldn't be the worst scenario for her campaign: Losing to Obama would be more damaging, and coming in third would be a deep blow.

Obama's win gives fresh buzz to a campaign insisting that America wants change, and the senator is polling ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire. Clinton's mantra of experience may not be resonating with voters as she had hoped, and she now faces a new dynamic: She's no longer the inevitable nominee.

Leaning forward on his black leather barstool, Berry acknowledged that winning Iowa was important for Clinton, but the congressman insisted that the damage isn't irreparable. He believes that Clinton has the organization and money to outlast other candidates: "I think she's the only one who cannot win in Iowa, and still be in good shape."

The congressman told WORLD that his long-time friendship with both Bill and Hillary Clinton played a large role in his endorsement of the senator for the presidency: "I would be an ungrateful jerk if I did otherwise."

But the Blue Dog Democrat with conservative positions on social and economic issues also said Clinton is the most qualified candidate, and believes she would pursue fiscal responsibility: "[Blue Dog Democrats] will tell her that if she wants to increase spending for some programs, that's fine, as long as you pay for it elsewhere." Berry says he would hold Clinton to that agreement: "If she won't do it, I'll go see her myself."

For now, Berry's focus is on South Carolina, where Clinton faces off with Obama in a Jan. 29 primary. The congressman will spend the next two days visiting radio stations and addressing small groups of Clinton supporters around the state.

As he bundles up against the 29-degree temperatures outside, Berry reveals why he's willing to trek to tiny bars with small crowds in freezing weather for Clinton: "I believe that the fate of the Republic hangs on the outcome of this election."

Web Extra: Who's out and who's staying in?

It didn't take long for the Iowa caucuses to claim their first victims: Hours after placing a distant fifth and sixth in the Democratic contest, Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd dropped out of the race.

Biden had met unexpected success in recent days, drawing big crowds in Iowa and raking in bigger donations for his campaign coffer. But the eleventh-hour enthusiasm wasn't enough to boost the senator above fifth place in the Iowa caucuses.

"I'm not a super star," Biden told Reuters last month. "People say they like me, people tell me they think I'd be a good president but that they just don't think I can win."

No Republican presidential candidates dropped out of the race on Thursday night. (Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-CO) bowed out late last month, endorsing Republican Mitt Romney.)

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) assured his fervent supporters last night that he would remain in the race, and the congressman has the campaign funds to do it: Paul's campaign raised more than $18 million in the final three months of last year. The 10-term congressman has garnered an avid Internet following with his opposition to the Iraq war and his emphasis on personal freedom.

Paul finished fifth in Iowa, edging out former New York mayor Rudy Giulaini. (The former mayor campaigned little in the state, saying he's instead focused on Feb. 5 when more than 20 states will hold primaries, and more than 1,000 delegates will be up for grabs.)

"I'm more encouraged than ever before," Paul told a crowd of about 150 people in downtown Des Moines last night. The crowd matched his enthusiasm, chanting: "Live free or die hard!" - Jamie Dean

Web Extra: Weary words

Grueling hours are a hallmark of presidential campaigns, and the run up to the Iowa caucuses was no exception. (Democrat John Edwards actually campaigned all night long two days before the Iowa contest.)

But as candidates' campaign schedules grew brutal - in Iowa and elsewhere - their speech grew muddled in some notable ways. Here's a recap of some of the weary words candidates uttered during the week leading up to the Iowa caucuses:

"We had 300 people outside, literally freezing to death."

- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) in Iowa City, slightly overstating the weather's effects on supporters at a campaign event

"…our sincere concern and apologies for what has happened in Pakistan."

- Republican Mike Huckabee reacting to former Pakistani primer minister Benazir Bhutto's assassination one week before the Iowa caucuses. (Huckabee's campaign quickly released a statement of clarification: The candidate meant to extend "sympathies" not "apologies.")

And perhaps the biggest Iowa-based blunder of the week came from Republican Mitt Romney, who whole-heartedly told a crowd of supporters in Altoona, Iowa: "I won't remember Iowans."

(Romney's campaign also clarified his statement: The candidate meant to say, "I won't forget Iowans.")

Most presidential candidates said they would stay up late watching the Iowa results come in before gearing up for the New Hampshire primaries in five days. But another top-tier politician also known for some tongue-tied moments planned to get his shut-eye: White House press secretary Dana Perino said President Bush would watch some early evening results, but would find out the rest in the morning: "He likes to go to bed early." - Jamie Dean

Jamie Dean

Jamie is national editor of WORLD Magazine. She is a World Journalism Institute graduate and previously worked for the Charlotte World. Jamie has covered politics, disasters, religion, and more for WORLD. She resides in Charlotte, N.C. Follow Jamie on Twitter @deanworldmag.

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